The Arms Buildup In The Gulf Is A Reflection of U.S. Policy In The Region

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta speaks to troops, wishing them happy holidays and thanking them for their service, at Ali Al Salem Air Base, Kuwait, Dec 12, 2012. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo

U.S. Arms To Gulf Allies Hint Of Strategy -- Washington Times

The largest infusion of U.S. arms ever for Persian Gulf allies has shifted more toward offensive weapons at the same time that President Obama’s military strategy says it will rely more on allied firepower in any future war.

The only war on the horizon for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and four other Gulf coalition partners would be with nearby Iran.

Noting U.S. sales of air defense-penetrating F-16s and F-15s, satellite-guided bombs and a pending order for ordnance that can burrow deep and then explode, analysts say Gulf nations could participate in a U.S. air campaign to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

These American-armed nations could either be part of an overall war plan or be forced to enter the battle once Iran counterattacks, as expected, with missile launches.

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My Comment: I am sure that Iran is noticing this arms buildup .... and wondering on how to respond to it.

Update: Sanctions against Iran are starting to have an impact.

Secret War With Iran Heats Up

From Sudan To Cyber, Secret War With Iran Heats Up -- New York Times/Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - From a suspected Israeli airstrike in Sudan to cyber warfare in the Gulf and a drone shot down over Israel, the largely hidden war between Iran and its foes seems heating up and spreading.

Despite months of speculation, most experts and governments believe the risk of a direct Israeli strike on Tehran's nuclear program stirring regional conflict has eased, at least for now. But all sides, it seems, are finding other ways to fight.

For the US and European powers , the main focus remains on oil export sanctions that are inflicting ever more damage on Iran's economy.

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My Comment: The focus is now on sanctions .... and they are having an impact. As for Israel .... they are still threatening a military strike.

Is Iran Launching Cyber Attacks Against The U.S.?

Iran Strikes Back -- Washington Free Beacon

Iranians used University of Michigan network in recent bank attacks.

Iranian hackers took over a University of Michigan computer network during a massive cyber attack on U.S. financial systems last week that continued following comments on the strike by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.

According to reports by a leading Internet security-monitoring firm, the cyber attacks against Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, and several other U.S. financial institutions began Oct. 8 when hackers gained control of the university’s College of Engineering network in Ann Arbor.

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More News On Iran Launching Their Own Cyber Attacks

U.S. Suspects Iran Was Behind a Wave of Cyberattacks -- New York Times
Iran behind many recent cyber attacks -- CBS
US: Iran is to blame for cyberattacks -- ZDNet
US Increasingly Convinced Iran Behind Attack On Saudi Aramco -- Tech Week Europe
US thinks Iran behind cyberattack in Saudi: ex-official -- Phys.org
Iran military likely already hit US with cyberattack -- Stars and Stripes
Netanyahu: Israel under cyber attack from Iran -- China.org.cn
Iran denies role in Aramco cyberattack -- UPI
Iran’s Cyber Warfare -- Canada Free Press
US warning reflects fears of Iranian cyberattack -- AP
Iranian Hackers Are Becoming a Real Pain -- Connor Simpson, The Atlantic
U.S., Iran ramping up cyberwar capability -- UPI

Is Iran Considering A Massive Oil Spill In The Persian Gulf?

Iran Considers Deliberate Persian Gulf Oil Spill -- Jerusalem Post

'Der Spiegel' reports Tehran mulls polluting Strait of Hormuz in response to sanctions; Iran seeks to cut foreign imports.

Iran is considering the possibility of spilling oil in the Persian Gulf in order to contaminate the waters of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, German weekly Der Spiegel reported on Sunday. The spill would be a way of "punishing" the West and forcing it to decrease the economic sanctions imposed against Tehran.

Citing Western intelligence sources, Der Spiegel reported that the plan, codenamed "Murky Waters," is meant to block shipping routes in the Gulf to international oil tankers.

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More News On Reports That Iran Is Preparing To Pollute The Persian Gulf In Retaliation For Sanctions

Iran accused of plotting Gulf oil spill to punish West for sanctions by poisoning Gulf -- Independent
Iran Weighs Plan to Cause Oil Spill: Report -- Newser
Iran Considering Plan To Cause Oil Spill In Strait Of Hormuz [Report] -- The Inquisitr
Iran develops plans to cause oil spill: report -- Gulf Times/AFP

My Comment: On the issue of Iran wanting to pollute their own waterways .... for once I am in agreement with Antiwar.com.

Don't Bet On A Surgical Strike On Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Rumors Of An Imminent Attack On Iran -- Heather Hurlburt, Daily Beast

Earlier this week, a respected journalist reported that the White House is considering a 'surgical strike' on Iran. Don’t bet on it, says Heather Hurlburt.

Earlier this week, Foreign Policy’s David Rothkopf reported that a source “close to White House discussions” believed that U.S. and Israeli planners were approaching agreement on the outlines of a joint, “surgical” strike on Iran’s nuclear program.

This report is wildly improbable politically: on the same day it appeared, Prime Minister Netanyahu dissolved his government and called new elections, which will take place in January or February.

Perhaps more important, it is operationally improbable: senior Pentagon officials, Israeli experts, and outside military analysts have said again and again that there is no “surgical” strike option. Supporters and opponents have agreed that any strike, in order to have even a delaying effect on the Iranian nuclear program, would have to be sustained, broad, and massive.

Why? Let’s review.

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My Comment: I completely concur with this analysis

Iran President: Israel Is Bluffing On Attacking Iran's Nuclear Program

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Israel Is Bluffing On Iran Attack Threat -- The Telegraph

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused Israel of bluffing over threats of air strikes against his country's nuclear programme on Monday while once again questioning the right of the Jewish state to exist.

In a series of combative interviews in New York on the eve of the UN General Assembly, Iran's political leader said Israel was making a lot of 'noise' and encouraging the West to prevent legitimate scientific progress in his country.

Reiterating that he was open to dialogue with the United States on the nuclear issue he also said he was prepared to defend Iran from any external threat.

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More News On Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's UN Speech

Ahmadinejad dismisses war threats on Iran nuclear program, says he seeks dialogue -- Washington Post/AP
Ahmadinejad: Iran doesn't take Israeli threats of attack seriously -- Haaretz
Iran does not fear Israeli strike: Ahmadinejad -- AFP
Iran's Leader Keeps Up Bluster Against Israel -- Wall Street Journal
Iran president: Israel short-lived in region, will be eliminated -- L.A. Times
In New York, defiant Ahmadinejad says Israel will be 'eliminated' -- Reuters
Iran’s President, in New York, Says Israelis Have No Mideast Roots -- New York Times

Western Intelligence: Iran's Supreme Leader Has Ordered Terror Attacks Against Western Targets

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Wikipedia

Iran's Supreme Leader Orders Fresh Terror Attacks On West -- The Telegraph

Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered the country's Revolutionary Guards to intensify its campaign of terror attacks against the West and its allies in retaliation for supporting the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

According to Western intelligence officials, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave the order to the elite Quds Force unit following a recent emergency meeting of Iran's National Security Council in Tehran held to discuss a specially-commissioned report into the implications for Iran of the Assad regime's overthrow.

Damascus is Iran's most important regional ally, and the survival of the Assad regime is regarded as vital to sustaining the Iranian-backed Hizbollah militia which controls southern Lebanon.

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More News On Western Intelligence Reports That Iran's Supreme Leader Has Ordered Terror Attacks Against Western Targets

Iran's Supreme Leader Orders Fresh Terror Attacks On The West -- Business Insider
Iran’s Supreme Leader Seeks To Intensify Terror Attacks In West For Moves Against Assad: Report -- IBTimes
Report: Iran's supreme leader orders to intensify attacks against West -- Haaretz
Report: Khamenei calls for increased terror against West -- Jerusalem Post
Khamenei calls for more terror attacks on West -- YNet News

Is Iran Losing The "Shadow War" With The US And Israel

A suicide bombing against Israeli tourists in Bulgaria was a rare "success" for Iran's operatives. Photo: REUTERS

Analysis: Iran's Spies Are Losing The Shadow War With US And Israel -- Daily Beast

In Syria and around the world, Iran’s covert operatives are struggling.

The powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, its infamous expeditionary unit, the Quds Force, and the network of Hezbollah operatives it supports around the world are starting to look like the proverbial gang that couldn’t shoot straight. They’re still dangerous, to be sure, but a series of recent incidents widely attributed to these groups suggest that as spies, assassins and terrorists, they just aren’t what they used to be. And Tehran is getting worried.

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My Comment: I hold a contrary opinion on Iran "losing" the covert war. From my vantage point they have put both Israel and the U.S. on notice on what they are capable of doing. They have shown to the world their military forces and their ability and determination to clsoe the Straits of Hormuz in the event of an attack, and they have strengthen their relationship with their allies (Hezbollah, Syria, etc.). And while doing all of this .... they have succeeded in having their nuclear program grow and expand.

Speculation In Russia And The Middle East On What Roles Will The U.S. And Israel Assume In Attacking Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Reuters / Issei Kato

US, Israel Arranging Roles In Iran War Theater? -- RT

Reports are surfacing of a US-Israeli plan to attack Iran’s ballistic missile batteries, giving Israel extra space to tackle Syria and Hezbollah. While no talks have been confirmed, anonymous sources claim that war plans have been put to paper.

­While it’s unclear how far-reaching the US and Israeli plans are, some say the allies have detailed intentions to destroy the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missiles – and let Israel launch an assault on Syria and Hezbollah to boot.

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Update: Wartime tasks split: US to smash Iran’s missiles, Israel tackle Syria, Hizballah -- Debka File

My Comment: I am deeply skeptical on the reliability of both reports .... in fact .... these reports are more fantasy than reality. But I posted them to illustrate what many in the Middle East and elsewhere are now believing is the war strategy against Iran's nuclear facilities .... and it is getting shrill.

Iran's Nuclear Program Will Be Delayed By Only Two Years If An Israeli Military Strike Occurs

Israeli Strike Would Only Delay Iran's Nuclear Program By Two Years -- Haaretz

Assessment holds that Iran's nuclear program would technically be set back by only a year, but it would likely take Iran another year on top of that to overcome side effects of the strike that would cause additional delays.

An Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would delay its manufacture of nuclear weapons by no more than two years, according to the prevailing assessment.

This assessment holds that Iran's nuclear program would technically be set back by only a year. But it would likely take Iran another year on top of that to overcome side effects of the strike that would cause additional delays.

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My Comment: While it appears that Panetta has failed in convincing the Israelis to wait until sanctions have taken their effect .... Israel is now realizing that they cannot succeed in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities unless the U.S. is directly involved.

My prediction on what is next .... and Iran's revolutionary commander is saying the same thing ..... expect an increase and escalation in the West's "soft war" against Iran.