Middle East And North Africa Are Teetering On The Brink

Apocalypse Not Quite Yet -- Christopher Dickey, Daily Beast

The Middle East and North Africa are teetering on the brink.

Notwithstanding sundry doomsday predictions—from the Mayans to Nostradamus and the ever-impending threat of Armageddon—we can now say with some assurance that the world did not end in 2012. The Middle East, however, continues to flirt with the apocalypse.

The revolutions, conflagrations, and confrontations now underway from the Sahara to the Hindu Kush are weakening national governments and calling into question borders that have lingered since European powers carved up the region after World War I. What is holding the map together now has more to do with fear than it does with hope, and if the old order fails, many in the Middle East suspect there may be no order left at all.

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My Comment: All of this regions tribal/sectarian/religious/political differences are coming to the forefront .... and often in a violent fashion. Will 2013 be another violent year for this region .... probably. Will it be apocalyptic .... we will soon find out.

Iraq's Sectarian Conflicts Are Crossing Over Into Syria

Iraqi Civil War Plays Out In Syria -- Hugh Macleod and A Reporter in Syria, Salon/GlobalPost

Shiites and Sunnis say they’re fighting a sectarian battle triggered when the U.S. toppled Sadam.

DAMASCUS, Syria — Divided by history, geography and God, Abu Mohammed and Abu Hamza both smoke Marlboro cigarettes and agree on one point: The war for Syria is also a war for Iraq.

Driven from their homes by the 2003 US-led war in Iraq, both men, now in their 40s, found refuge for themselves and their families in neighboring Syria.

Nearly a decade later, both are back in the country that once sheltered them.

But this time their wives and children are no longer with them. The men are not in Syria to flee a war, but to fight one. Abu Mohammed, a Sunni, is training rebels in Aleppo. Abu Hamza, a Shiite, is battling alongside President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in Damascus.

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My Comment: Islam has been at war with itself for centuries .... the past century of peace (more or less) has just been a respite.

An Israeli Analysis On What Kind Of Regional Blocs Will Emerge From The Syrian Civil War

The Geopolitical Poker Game That Will Define The New Mideast -- Ely Karmon, Haaretz

Analysts from across the Middle East shed light on what kind of Syria and what kind of regional blocs will emerge from the current crisis.

The uprising in Syria will have a tremendous influence on the future strategic landscape of the Middle East. The struggle inside Syria between the Alawite regime and the amalgam of opposition forces is the battle-ground for powerful regional players: Iran’s Shi'ite coalition against the recently reborn and assertive Sunni alliance.

The international community has been unable to reach an agreement to solve the Syrian crisis, divided as it is between, on the one hand, the anti-Assad bloc: the U.S. and its allies, amongst whom can be counted the 110 countries who participated in recent "Friends of Syria" conferences; and on the other, pro-Assad Russia, China and Iran. This has produced an unstable deadlock, a "limited cold war" (a description given by former Iranian diplomat Mohammed Ali Sobhani), but one that constantly threatens to transmutate into a "hot" war in Syria with the active participation of armies and proxies from all sides.

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My Comment: I concur with their worst case scenario of a "Fortress Alawi".

Islamic Extremism And Revolution Are Destroying The Historical Treasures Of The Arab World

Aleppo Mosque Is Latest Casualty Of Syria's Civil War -- The Telegraph

A landmark mosque in Aleppo has been burned, scarred by bullets and trashed – the latest casualty of Syria's civil war.

The Umayyad Mosque suffered extensive damage, as has the nearby medieval covered market, or souk, which was gutted by a fire that was sparked by fighting two weeks ago.

The market and the mosque are centrepieces of Aleppo's walled Old City, which is listed as a UNESCO World Heritage site.

Government troops had been holed up in the mosque for months before rebels launched a push this week to drive them out. Activists and Syrian government officials blamed each other for the weekend fire at the mosque.

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Update #1: Mali Islamists destroy more saints' tombs in Timbuktu: witnesses -- AFP
Update #2: Salafists blamed for destroying pagan rock carving in Morocco -- Reuters

My Comment: These loses can never be recovered.... centuries from now people will look back at what has been done and just shake their heads.

Is Syria's Civil War About To Spread To Neighboring States?

Syrian War Threatens to Spread to Neighbors -- Spiegel Online

With deaths in Turkey, shelling in Lebanon and skirmishes on the border with Jordan, it is clear the war in Syria has begun to spill over to into neighboring states. The longer the crisis lasts, the greater the danger becomes of a major regional escalation.

Events in recent days have illustrated just how quickly the violence in Syria could spiral into a regional war. After Syrian mortar bombs once again fell on Turkish soil, this time killing five civilians, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan felt compelled to act. The Turkish military's retaliation on Wednesday and Thursday startled the international community.

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My Comment: I do not see Syria's civil war spilling into neighboring states .... but I am starting to see the Arab Spring unrest restart in Jordan, some Gulf sheikdoms, and Saudi Arabia itself.