The Consequences Of A Nuclear Incident In Iran

The Next Chernobyl? -- Khosrow B. Semnani and Gary M. Sandquist, New York Times

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH — The showdown over Iran’s nuclear program is likely to accelerate in 2013 as sanctions tighten, Israel threatens military strikes, and the centrifuges keep spinning. While most attention will be focused on the two most oft-discussed sites of uranium enrichment — Natanz and Fordow — a third site on the gulf could prove to be this year’s most dangerous nuclear wild card.

Tucked between two sleepy coastal fishing villages, the Bushehr nuclear power plant has long been seen as the “acceptable” face of Iran’s nuclear program. Built by Russian engineers and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency, it is already producing electricity, and most nuclear experts agree that it does not merit the same level of concern over weaponization as Iran’s other nuclear sites.

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My Comment: I was born in Russia, so when Chernobyl occurred it impacted me directly. Fortunately ... I was working in China, and I made sure that I stayed away .... actually .... I ended applying for (and being accepted) as an immigrant to Canada .... becoming a citizen a few years later and bringing my family a few years after that. Unfortunately .... many did not have that opportunity, and had to suffer the consequences .... the biggest one being the impact that the nuclear accident had on the health of the unborn and young children. In my own family all of my cousin's children had health problems .... from St. Petersburg, to Moscow, to southern Ukraine .... and I ended up becoming their main source in sending vitamins, medicines, etc., for their kids. That was not a good time, and I shudder to this day when I think about it.

Now I am reading about the possibility of a Chernobyl on the Persian Gulf. Sighhh .... I can tell you from personal experience that it will impact everything. The price of oil, a massive health crisis that will strain the regions health services, a mass migration of people away from the affected zone .... in short .... a disaster that will take decades (if not centuries) to resolve. The last paragraph of this New York Times commentary sums it up perfectly ....

.... The I.A.E.A. should focus on the safety of the Bushehr plant with the same eye for detail that it uses to detect any weaponization program. Hundreds of thousands of lives depend on it, as do world oil markets, the global economy, and the world’s collective security.

Why 2013 Will Be A Tough Year For Iran

Iran Faces a Rough 2013 -- Alireza Nader, Real Clear World

For Iran, 2013 could be one of the most challenging years-both at home and in relations with the outside world-since the 1979 revolution. The Islamic Republic faces the potential of stronger economic sanctions and even an Israeli and/or U.S. military strike because of its intransigence in complying with U.N. resolutions on its nuclear program.

But the world's only modern theocracy also must deal with twin domestic challenges-- deepening malaise among the young and increasing tensions among the political elite. Both could be important factors in the presidential election scheduled for June 14, which will feature a new slate of candidates since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will have served the two-term limit. Home-grown problems could outweigh the regime's foreign policy woes.

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My Comment: The economy is going to be the number one story for Iranians in 2013 .... high prices, high unemployment, tougher times for those who are dependent on the government for the basics.

What Will Be The Economic Cost of A Nuclear Iran

The Economic Cost Of A Nuclear Iran -- Charles Robb, Dennis Ross and Michael Makovsky, Wall Street Journal

Sanctions and U.S. military force carry risks, but Tehran with a bomb would wreak havoc on global markets.

After the looming fiscal cliff, the next major challenge facing the United States will be preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapons capability. Living with a nuclear Iran is strategically untenable. Like the fiscal cliff, this is a matter of both economic and national security. Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons carries various risks, but inaction has its costs, too—especially to the price of oil and, in turn, to the U.S. economy.

International sanctions against Iran have already restricted its oil exports, reducing global supply and putting upward pressure on oil prices. But a military strike against the Islamic Republic could disrupt the flow of oil in the region, as Iran might retaliate against the West by attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil supplies pass.

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My Comment: I am always skeptical of these economic forecasts ... but I do know one thing .... a military confrontation with Iran will not only put the global economy into a recession .... but the cost of such a military conflict will probably escalate (very quickly) into the tens of billions (if not more) in just the first few weeks. Then again .... if a nuclear Iran does use it's nuclear arsenal directly (or indirectly through a terrorist organization) .... the cost will be in the trillions.

Sighhh .... damned if you do .... damned if you do not. Edward Luce from the Financial Times is probably right .... this is President Obama's year of reckoning on Iran.

Why Iran Doesn't Want The Bomb (Ten Reasons)

Ten Reasons Iran Doesn't Want the Bomb -- Seyed Hossein Mousavian, National Journal

Since the beginning of Iran’s nuclear crisis, the West has been convinced that one approach offers the best hope of altering Tehran’s nuclear policy and halting its enrichment activities: comprehensive international sanctions and a credible threat of military strike. During the same period, I have repeatedly warned my friends in the West that such punitive pressures, no matter how severe, will not change the Iranian leadership’s mindset, and that a military option would be catastrophic for Iran, the region and beyond.

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My Comment: These are good reasons .... but Iran (in defiance of the international community) is still pursuing their nuclear enrichment program.

Is Iran Bluffing?

The Iranian Bluff -- Alex Fishman, YNet News

Op-ed: Tehran seeks dialogue with West as its military threat gradually diminishes.

Over the past few months Iran has been purchasing huge amounts of food, and its citizens have been banned from withdrawing foreign currency from banks. In light of this, the West estimates that the Islamic Republic is preparing for the tightening of the economic siege, as well as for a military conflict and a forced war economy.

There is no doubt that the New York Times report on the resumption of direct talks between Iran and the United States marks yet another attempt by Tehran to loosen the noose around its neck. About a month ago the permanent members of the UN Security Council rejected Iran's "nine-step plan" to defuse the nuclear crisis with the West and instead passed a resolution demanding that Tehran stop enriching uranium to a 20% purity level and also ship all uranium enriched above five percent out of the country.

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My Comment: I do not believe that Iran is bluffing. Their military may not match the West's or Israel's .... but they know that .... so they will wage war on a different level .... i.e. asymmetrical, terrorism, hitting critical oil targets, etc.., and will probably be very effective.

Israel’s Top Iran Expert Explans Why Talks With Iran On It`s Nuclear Program Will Fail

Israel’s Top Iran Expert: You Can’t Out-Negotiate the Mullahs -- Daily Beast

Sure, Iran’s open to haggle with the United States about nukes. But there’s no way the nation will ever stop enriching uranium, Israel’s top Iran expert tells Dan Ephron.

Israel’s top Iran expert, a former spy who predicted the downfall of the shah in 1979, has news for President Barack Obama or anyone else hoping to talk Iran out of its nuclear program: forget about out-negotiating the mullahs.

Uri Lubrani, who was Israel’s ambassador to Iran from 1973 to 1978, told The Daily Beast that the Iran’s reported willingness to engage directly with the United States was yet another sign that sanctions were hurting the regime. But he said with dead certainty that Iran would not agree to stop enriching uranium—no matter what incentives it is offered.

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My Comment: The Iranians also have the added benefit of knowing that there is no political will in Washington or in Europe for a military confrontation with Iran over it`s nuclear program. With this understanding, there is no motivation in Tehran to reach an agreement over a program that the now probably regard is essential to their own national security.

A U.S. Military Strike On Iran?

Is The White House Weighing A Military Strike On Iran? -- Tony Karon, Time

The Israelis may be trying to make military action seem more palatable to the Administration, but diplomacy and sanctions will likely remain Washington's focus well into next year

Have some members of the Obama Administration been quaffing a ten-year-old jug of Kool Aid left in a White House basement fridge by Bush Administration officials? That’s certainly an impression conveyed by one unnamed source briefing Foreign Policy magazine’s David Rothkopf on talks between the Administration and the Israeli government. According to Rothkopf’s sources, Washington is now considering plans for a limited U.S.-Israeli raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a strike so “surgical” that it could be over in a matter of hours. This ostensible military cakewalk would, according to “one advocate” cited by Rothkopf have a “transformative outcome: saving Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, reanimating the peace process, securing the Gulf, sending an unequivocal message to Russia and China, and assuring American ascendancy in the region for a decade to come.”

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My Comment: More speculation. As to what's my take .... there is nothing on the ground that tells me that the U.S. is positioning assets in the region that will be used in a strike on Iran's nuclear sites. When I see 3-4 aircraft carrier groups near the Persian Gulf, the cancellation of military leaves, and the B-2 fleet at Diego Garcia .... that is when I know that this is going to happen.

Three Possible Scenarios From Iran's Currency Crisis

The Iranian Currency Crisis: Three Possible Scenarios -- Jay Newton-Small, Time

During my trip to Iran last month, the owner of a chicken shop in Shohada Square, a lower middle class neighborhood in southern Tehran not far from the bazaar, complained to me about the fluctuating price of chicken. “Yesterday, I had some orders from some regular customers. So I sold them chickens for 50,000 rials each,” he said. “But when I went to buy the chickens today, the price had spiked 5,000 rial overnight. I had to pay 55,000 rials for each chicken, so I lost some money. It would be fine if this was a one-time thing, but it keeps happening. The prices, they’ve fluctuated so much the last couple of months.”

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My Comment: Iran has lost the economic battle .... and I do expect even more economic hardships and diffident times for Iran. But .... as long as there are men willing to suppress/imprison/and kill the regime's opponents .... the mullahs will survive.