War Clouds In Asia?

Ripe For Rivalry -- Victor Cha, Foreign Policy

Has Asia's moment of reckoning finally arrived?

On Wednesday, North Korea successfully launched a rocket that achieved what few countries outside of the United States, China, and Russia have -- a demonstrated long-range ballistic missile launch capability. The country is now one step closer to being able to launch a nuclear bomb across the Pacific. In early December, India's top admiral seemed to suggest that his navy would protect India-Vietnam oil exploration in the South China Sea from Chinese belligerence, while China and Japan aggressively re-affirmed their "sacred" right to the disputed Senkaku island chain in the East China Sea (which the Chinese call the Diaoyu). China and the Philippines are still facing off over a shoal in the South China Sea. It's all enough to make one wonder: Is 2013 the year that conflict finally breaks out in Asia?

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My Comment: A part of me says no .... there is zero possibility of a conflict erupting between Asian countries now or in the foreseeable future. Another part of me says that I should not be naive .... wars and conflicts have always existed in Asia, it is just that for the past three decades (not including internal insurrections) Asia has been fortunate enough to not experience a major war. Will this now all change .... probably. As U.S. power declines other nations will try to fill in the vacuum, and as Asian countries try to assert their sovereignty over territories that other countries may claim is their own  .... that is when the risk of escalating tensions resulting in a real shooting war between nations can occur .... with global implications and impact.

Is History Repeating Itself Between Japan And China?

Posturing Over Islands Could Mean China, Japan Showdown -- Paul D. Shinkman, US News and World Report

History could repeat itself between the two powers

China and Japan's aerial posturing on Thursday comes amid turbulence in almost all major Asian powers.

Japan faces an election on Sunday, in which the incumbent will likely lose to an opponent known for hawkish language toward China. A new Chinese government assembled behind closed doors still seeks to assert its regional power employing a traditionally complicated relationship with its own military establishment.

These most recent maneuvers come days after North Korea successfully caught the world's attention with a ballistic missile launch shortly before their neighbors to the south conduct their own elections.

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My Comments: Asia's old differences and conflicts are coming back. Throw in nationalism, economic competition, and political instability .... we now have a perfect cocktail for escalating tensions and even threats of war. No wonder the U.S. does not want to be involved in this disputes.

Update: This is a troubling development .... China asks army to be ready for regional war.

Is The U.S. Ready For An Asia Conflict?

Click on Image to Expand

The Angry Pacific: Why The United States Is Not Ready For Conflict In Asia. -- Michael J. Mazarr, Foreign Policy

When I was in Seoul a few weeks ago, the English-language news program Korea Today broadcast a strangely fascinating story about an "I Love Dokdo" contest at Taegu University. The idea was to see who could come up with the most inspiring tribute to the patch of microislands that has been the focus of a recurring and bitter dispute with Japan. It was strange to see young Koreans sitting on a spare, modernist television set, smiling, laughing and calmly celebrating a nationalist routine. Even odder was the fact that a Mexican exchange student named Emilio, along with a multinational team, won the contest. The goal of their performance, he said on Korea Today, was to "to express our love for Dokdo," in part by showing "the people who have protected Dokdo throughout history" and demonstrating "how beautiful" the islands are.

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My Comment: I have been traveling to Asia since the mid 1980s .... and I have always found them to be nationalistic, as well as being steeped in cultural traditions like "not losing face" to remembering (and not forgiving) historical grievances. The difference now is that there are a few focal points for everyone's attention to be focused on (such as disputes over islands), coupled with a communications and information grid that everyone in Asia is now plugged into. Hence .... when a dispute over an island's ownership occurs .... everyone will know about it within hours.

As to the question .... is the U.S. ready for an Asia conflict? .... the answer is a definite no. Any major conflict in Asia will involve million man armies, heavy and lethal weapon systems, and casualty rates in the millions. I am not even going to discuss the economic fallout except to say that it would be devastating for the rest of the world. While I am sure that the Pentagon/CIA/and US State Department planners have drawn up worst case scenarios .... I am also equally sure that our political leaders do not even want to contemplate the "what if situation" if everything should start to unravel.

China's South China Sea Claims Endangers Stability In Asia

Yongxing Island

The Coming Global Disorder -- Bret Stephens, Commentary

Woody Island is a speck of land in the middle of the South China Sea, not quite a square mile in size. Over the past 80 years it has been occupied by French Indochina, Imperial Japan, the Republic of China, the People’s Republic of China, South Vietnam, and, after a brief war in 1974, the People’s Republic again. Now known as Yongxing to the Chinese (or Phu Lam to the Vietnamese, who still lay claim to it), the island has an airstrip, a harbor, and a few hundred Chinese residents, none native-born, many of whom make their living as fishermen.

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My Comment: For the Chinese .... they see the South China Sea not only as an integral part of China .... but also an essential region for it's long term future. With this mindset .... good luck on trying to make them compromise on principles that they firmly believe in.

The Start Of An Asian Cold War

The Asian Cold War -- Michael Auslin, Foreign Policy

China and Japan's island spat is much more than a battle over a bunch of uninhabited rocks. And it won't be ending anytime soon.

The roiling dispute over a remote set of rocks in the East China Sea, known to the Japanese as the Senkaku Islands and to the Chinese as the Diaoyus, is more than a mere diplomatic spat between two of the world's largest economies. It has stripped away the thin veneer of cooperation between the two Asian giants that most observers assumed would ripen as the two countries became increasingly economically intertwined. It also serves as yet another reminder of just how potent territorial disputes remain in Asia and how little trust there is between countries where the wounds of previous conflicts are still fresh. Although the probability of actual conflict between China and Japan over the Senkakus is negligible, the current crisis is the herald of a new cold war that will persist for years, if not decades. The result will be an Asia that remains fragmented, unable to overcome the baggage of the past, and one in which the specter of accidental conflict is ever present.

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My Comment: For the moment it is a propaganda exercise .... but it is going to "heat up".