China’s Image Problem

The Bullies of Beijing: China’s Image Problem -- Minxin Pei, The Diplomat

Actions by the People's Republic -- intentional or not -- have created the worst regional environment for China since Tiananmen.

One of the elementary rules of foreign policy is when you are in a hole, stop digging. But judging by their recent behavior, Beijing’s foreign policy mandarins and national security establishment are clearly in violation of this rule. Despite the diplomat heat China has received for its tough stance on territorial disputes in recent months, the Chinese Foreign Ministry apparently seemed to believe that it could strengthen Chinese claims symbolically by issuing a new passport containing a map that claims the disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea and the contested territories along the Sino-Indian border. The reaction was predictable. Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines, protested loudly. India retaliated by promising to stamp visas containing its own map on Chinese passports.

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My Comment: China has certainly been asserting itself in Asian affairs this past few years. My prediction .... in order to not lose face the Chinese will start to act on their demands .... expect tensions to continue to increase and China`s image problem will become the least of everyone`s concerns.

Why China Will Not Be A Superpower

China's new Politburo Standing Committee members (from left to right) Zhang Gaoli, Liu Yunshan, Zhang Dejiang, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng and Wang Qishan, line up as they meet with the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing last month. Carlos Barria/REUTERS

Why China Won't Be The Next Great Superpower -- Ghaffar Hussain, The Commentator

China is and will be a power - but the next great superpower it is not nor ever likely to be.

All talk amongst global trend watchers these days is about the rise of China; how China is the next big thing, the new superpower, and how China's rise will change the world we live in. A closer look at trends within China, however, point to a different story.

In a recent interview with The Times, a young well-to-do Chinese couple discussed what life was like for the nouveau riche in China today. They spoke about their trendy new apartment, their designer clothes, and the first class private education their daughter was receiving. When asked what they wished for their daughter most of all, without any hesitation, they replied “Canadian citizenship”.

There are good reasons why most of China's new middle class are dreaming of a new life in the west.

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My Comment: I concur with this commentary's observations. The environmental/social/political/economic problems in China are enormous .... and this will be the focus for China's leaders today and tomorrow. If their problems at home were solved .... maybe China would look at playing a greater role abroad .... but for now their attention is on domestic issues and on international issues their focus is (and will be) on their relations/disputes with their neighbors.

China`s Military Ambitions Threaten Asian Stability

Expanding Military Ambitions Threaten Region -- Shar Adams, Epoch Times

Contracting economy increases influence of Chinese military.

As the People’s Republic of China’s economy tightens, so will its aggressive antics increase, particularly in the South and East China seas, predicts China expert Gordon Chang.

According to Chang we are seeing the end of China’s three-decadelong growth: China’s economy is slowing fast; the leadership is fractured; and the power transfer, leading up to the 18th Party Congress, was anything but smooth. Chinese people, too, are openly disdainful of the system, taking to the streets and to social media sites en masse to protest.

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My Comment: I have always had trouble accepting the argument that China`s military establishment are determined to play a greater role over Chinese domestic and foreign affairs. But when I read news reports from Chinese communist publications like this one .... it is clear that the Chinese military does want to play a greater role in China`s political affairs, and the Communist Party is ready to accommodate this desire.

A Collection of Essays On What Is The Future Of China

Dawn Of A New China? -- New York Times

The Chinese Communist Party unveiled last week a new leadership slate headed by Xi Jinping who will face the task of guiding China to a more sustainable model of growth. In his first speech as general secretary of the party, he offered only a few hints of a shift in direction, though he did denounce the “prevalence of corruption and said officials needed to guard against its spread.”

What are the core issues confronting Xi’s new leadership, and what can we expect to see?

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My Comment: If you are a China watcher, this collection of essays are for you.

The Chinese People Want More

Xi Jinping (left) will be China's leader for the next 10 years. In September, China's ruling Communist Party said it would be approving its first leadership changes for a decade. Incumbent President Hu Jintao (right) will retire. DPA

Chinese No Longer Bow to Autocratic Rule -- Bernhard Zand, Spiegel Online

The time of autocratic rule has passed for China's Communist Party. At one time it was understood that the people would obey, and everyone would get rich in return. But economic success will no longer suffice. Now the Chinese are demanding freedom and security too.

There wasn't a word to be found in China last week about the story that had splashed across headlines for several days everywhere else in the world. Not a single mention was afforded the $2.7 billion (€2 billion) that the New York Times reported has been amassed by the family of outgoing Prime Minister Wen Jiabao during his time in office.

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My Comment: I noticed the same thing when I visited China in September. Money and wealth is one thing .... but the Chinese people now want security and accountability in their rulers .... starting with a desire for more freedom. Unfortunately .... China's leaders are still focused on their need to accumulate even more power.

China Wants To Be The World's Second Superpower

Naval honor guards stand as they wait for a review on China's aircraft carrier Liaoning in Dalian, Liaoning province in September. REUTERS / Xinhua

China Seeks Role as Second Superpower -- Erich Follath and Wieland Wagner, Spiegel Online

Next week, Beijing will open its 18th party congress at which the Communist Party will select the country's new leader. One of the core issues at the meeting will be the role in China of a military that has gained considerable influence. Some in the party are unhappy with its powerful position.

Everyone who attended the event later said that this sort of thing had never occurred before, not once since the communists assumed power in China 63 years ago and the party assumed control of the military. It also happened when everyone was in a mood to relax, at a "holiday banquet" in honor of top generals.

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My Comment: They have come a long way from where they were 25 years ago .... but they still have an even longer way to go to be considered a superpower on the world stage.

How China Fights Wars

How China Fights: Lessons From the 1962 Sino-Indian War -- Brahma Chellaney, Daily Beast

The rest of the world may have forgotten the anniversary, but a neglected border war that took place 50 years ago is now more pertinent than ever. Before dawn on the morning of Oct. 20, 1962, the People’s Liberation Army launched a surprise attack, driving with overwhelming force through the eastern and western sections of the Himalayas, deep into northeastern India. On the 32nd day of fighting, Beijing announced a unilateral ceasefire, and the war ended as abruptly as it had begun. Ten days later, the Chinese began withdrawing from the areas they had penetrated on India’s eastern flank, between Bhutan and Burma, but they kept their territorial gains in the West—part of the original princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. India had suffered a humiliating rout, and China’s international stature had grown substantially.

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My Comment: An excellent analysis by Brahma Chellaney .... and a disturbing one in a world of nuclear weapons.

China At A Crossroads

Credit: JFunk via Shutterstock/Salon)

The Ferrari-Red Communists -- Erich Follath and Wieland Wagner, Spiegel Online

China at a Crossroads in Shift from World's Factory to Industrial Power

The Chinese are seen as victors in the global financial crisis, and as both a hope and a threat to German industry. Beijing wants to be more than the world's factory. But the country's economic engine is showing signs of stalling and it is uncertain what direction it will take in the future.

A visit with Mr. Huang, one of the richest and most controversial men in the People's Republic of China, is full of surprises. Take, for example, the four pairs of climbing boots lined up like exhibits behind the door to his office. "I was at the South Pole and North Pole, and twice on Mt. Everest with these," says Huang, pointing proudly to a series of photos that serve as proof of his adventures. There are Buddha statues and various animals in the adjacent rooms, including rhesus monkeys and pygmy rabbits in cages, as well as small sharks swimming in circles in a large aquarium leaning against a wall.

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My Comment: I had the good fortune of not only visiting China in the mid 1980s, but living there in 1988. Trust me .... 24 years later the place does not look the same anymore. But this growth should not surprise any of us. When I was living in Fujian province, we had the good fortune of being able to receive TV signals from Taiwan. I quickly learned that the number one program on TV .... and one that resulted in the streets being deserted for one hour .... was .... reruns of Dallas. The Chinese wanted to be like the Americans .... and that was (and still is) their goal.

Will this bubble burst ... probably .... but not today.

Can China Be A Leader On The World Stage?

Image credit: UN Photo/Marco Castro

Can China Be A World Leader? -- Elizabeth C. Economy, The Diplomat

Recently I participated in a BBC/Carnegie Endowment debate on the U.S. presidential campaign and policy toward China with the eminent and estimable former U.S. Ambassadors Chas W. Freeman, Jr. and J. Stapleton Roy, and Tsinghua University scholar Yan Xuetong. The full debate is available here.

The discussion was wide-ranging but what struck me most was an assertion by one of the panelists that the next U.S. president will have to deal with the fact that China has surpassed the United States as the number one power (based on the size of its economy). As a result, in his opinion, China will no longer feel the need to defer to the United States and the current arrangement of international institutions.

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My Comment: When I was in China last month I asked my friend and host (a former mayor of a major Chinese city and a recently retired provincial premier) if China is now ready to be a major international player at the same level as the United States. His answer .... he rolled his eyes and commented that China cannot manage China .... let alone managing international relations and the complexities of multiple allies and interlinked economic/political/social/and national security organizations.

I took his answer to be a no.

And he is right,

I have been saying to my Chinese friends for as long as I can remember that while China is culturally old .... an ancient society with no other equal in the world .... it is (unfortunately) politically very immature .... still grappling with the concept and culture of democratic and free institutions, political/cultural/religious tolerance of opposite views, and what role should a modern Chinese government play on the regional/national/and international level. As witness to the recent tensions with Japan .... and their reaction to Japanese provocations .... I would have to say that the Chinese still have a long way to go. But for the moment .... they are doing what they do best .... forming one and one relationships .... and only if it suits them.

The Rise Of Chinese Nationalism

All The Asian Rage: It’s Not Just The Middle East. China’s On The March. -- Niall Ferguson, Time

Rage is all the rage. As we all know, radical Muslims are enraged about blasphemous videos and cartoons—so much so that an American ambassador to a country liberated by the United States was murdered by a howling mob in Libya.

I worry about that. I worry even more about this administration’s lame response to it. But perhaps we should all worry the most about a very different kind of rage: the Chinese rage that takes the form of a hyperventilating nationalism.

Another American ambassador recently had an encounter with Chinese rage. Fortunately, he was unharmed. Still, if I were Gary Locke—the U.S. ambassador in Beijing—I certainly would not have enjoyed being surrounded by 50 Chinese-nationalist protesters chanting: “Down with U.S. imperialism! China will win!”

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My Comment: Regular readers of this blog know that I was in China last week .... and yes .... I do concur with Niall Ferguson's observations that Chinese nationalism is on the rise. I have also been a regular visitor to China since the mid 1980s .... and so I have a certain perspective that most pundits do not have.

In the 1980s the Chinese were focused on economic and political reforms .... culminating in the Tienanmen Square Massacre (and the end of political reform) but also resulting in a dedicated push by the government for economic reforms and their own form of "capitalism". This economic push continued in the 1990s and in the first decade of the 21rst century .... but in recent years a more assertive and aggressive China is now making it's presence felt on the international scene.

The China that I knew was always focused on internal issues .... but now .... they are focused on international issues starting with all of their neighboring states. I can only assume that their new wealth .... coupled with a modern industrial base .... has given them the confidence to be this assertive .... and to pursue policies that they would never have dreamed about 30 years ago. But this assertiveness does have a cost .... and for China their nationalistic behavior is alienating all of their neighbors .... with the exception of North Korea.

I have always been telling my Chinese hosts that culturally the Chinese are unequal in the world .... that they have a history that goes back thousands of years ... and no one can match that. But I also tell them that politically China is still immature, and that they do not have the wisdom and experience that the U.S. and Europe have in handling international issues and crisis points. But the Chinese are not listening .... and neither is anyone else in Asia. Where this will lead to is anyone's guess .... but this is a direction that should concern everyone of us for if the "shit hits the fan" .... the impact will be immediate, and it will impact all of us.

Is Communist China On The Verge Of Collapse?

The national flag flies from the top of the National Museum of China. Photo: Reuters

Communist China On The Verge Of Collapse -- Miklos K. Radvanyi, Washington Times

Corruption and economic downturn causing unrest.

The People's Republic of China appears to be a normal nation-state on the surface. Yet, alarmingly close to this tranquil surface, society is in a volcanic turmoil. Total political control by the party, the state and local authorities is becoming increasingly unacceptable. Opinion surveys regularly conducted by universities and the printed media have found that almost 50 percent of the Chinese are unhappy with their living conditions. While giant state-owned and state-controlled enterprises in industries that the party and the military considers “strategic” prosper, private and joint public-private entities are steadily subjected to official meddling and harassment.

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My Comment: I have been going to China since the mid-1980s .... and the conditions that Miklos K. Radvanyi outlines in his commentary are exactly the same conditions that I witnessed in China when I first visited there. The fact of the matter is that China has always been undergoing stress and tensions on every level that you can imagine since the beginning .... and I expect these tensions and stresses to continue as China marches into the 21rst century to become the dominant economic power on the planet.