Tensions Continue To Rise Between China And Japan Over Disputed Islands

Japan Increases Surveillance of East China Sea Islands -- Voice of America

Japan has increased surveillance around disputed East China Sea islands, after Chinese ships made a rare prolonged visit to the waters around them.

Tokyo controls the islands and refers to them as Senkaku, while Beijing considers them to be Chinese territory and calls them Diaoyu.

Japan said four Chinese surveillance ships entered the waters around the disputed islands on Monday and remained for 13 hours, ignoring calls by the Japanese coast guard to leave. Japanese chief Cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga called the prolonged Chinese patrol “extremely unusual” and “regrettable.”

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More News On Tensions Rising Between China And Japan

Japan's tougher stance over disputed islands -- Australia News Network
Japan PM orders stronger surveillance near disputed isles -- Reuters
Japan Alerts Jets After China Plane Nears Isles, Yomiuri Says -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Tokyo summons Chinese ambassador to protest 4 surveillance ships near disputed islands -- Washington Post/AP
Japan protests over China ships near disputed islands -- BBC
Japan Summons Chinese Ambassador over Island Dispute -- Voice of America
China and Japan step up drone race as tension builds over disputed islands -- The Guardian
Japan plans to raise military budget amid China row -- AFP
Japan may lift military spending -- Sydney Morning Herald
Coast guard looking for few old ships, retirees to beef up isle patrols -- Japan Times
Poll: Two-thirds of Chinese boycotted Japanese goods over Senkakus dispute -- Japan Times
China’s New Leader, and the Islands Dispute -- Nicholas Kristof, New York Times
A Dangerous Escalation in the East China Sea -- Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Wall Street Journal

A Sobering Analysis On Why China And Japan Are Foes

In Asia, Ill Will Runs Deep -- Odd Arne Westad, New York Times

THERE are few economies and societies on earth more complementary than China’s and Japan’s. The Chinese are relatively young, poor and restless and fiercely committed to economic growth. The Japanese are relatively old and sated, but technologically advanced and devoted to guarding their high standard of living. Proximity would seem to make the two nations ideally suited to benefit from each other.

But Japan is afraid of China’s rise, because the Chinese economy is so much more dynamic than Japan’s. And China is troubled by Japan, because the island nation seems to act as an unsinkable American aircraft carrier just off its coast.

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My Comment: I have been traveling to both countries since the mid-1980s .... and on my first visit the first thing that struck me was on how intense the animosities were between the two countries. The Japanese have a cultural superiority and a nationalism that many Asians find distasteful. The Chinese have their own sense of nationalism .... but they have also never forgiven the Japanese for the atrocities of World War II .... and will probably hold this sentiment for the next century or two. In this environment .... while both countries are trying very hard to cooperate and work together .... they are finding that the old cultural and social prejudices are difficult to overcome, and in some cases almost impossible .... a conflict over 6 uninhabited islands is a case in point.

Update: Survey: Mistrust High Between Japanese, Chinese Citizens -- Voice of America

How China Pushes Japan

Four Chinese Surveillance Ships Push Their Luck With Japanese Patience -- Business Insider

Four Chinese government ships entered territorial waters around Japan-controlled islands at the centre of a dispute on Monday, the Japanese coastguard said.

The four marine surveillance ships were seen moving within 12 nautical miles of the islands, known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyus in China, just before midday, the coastguard said in a statement.

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My Comment: For Japan's pro-defense lobby who want more money .... the Chinese are definitely making their job easier.

Japan Sends Fighter Jets In Response To Another Chinese Incursion Into Their Disputed Airspace

Japan Sends Fighter Jets After A Second Ever Chinese Invasion Of Its Airspace -- Business Insider

China's first ever invasion of Japan's airspace happened just weeks ago, but the move appears to becoming a routine addition to the burgeoning standoff.

The AFP now reports:

Japan scrambled fighter jets on Saturday to head off a Chinese state-owned plane that flew near islands at the centre of a dispute between Tokyo and Beijing, a Japanese Defense Ministry spokesman said.

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My Comment: Today's Chinese incursion makes yesterday's Wall Street Journal commentary (A Dangerous Escalation in the East China Sea) all the more prophetic .... China and Japan are on a collision course over these small and barren islands, and both sides are not willing to back down.

What's my take .... Japan cannot compete with China, and time is on China's side. But the Japanese (at least publicly) do not share that point of view.

Update: Could the Senkaku/Daoyus Drag Asia into a War? -- Asian Sentinel

Can China And Japan Go To War In 2013?

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Professor: Don't Be Surprised If There's A War Between Japan And China In The Next Year -- Rob Wile, Business Insider

Chinese planes flew near Japanese airspace Monday to assert its claims to Japan's Senkaku islands (China calls them the Diaoyu islands).

The move came just as Japan announced its new prime minister.

Hugh White, a professor at Australian National University and a former Australian defense official, believes this is the latest sign the two countries are heading to war.

And the U.S. will be dragged in.

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My Comment: I am still of the opinion that our "better angels" will persevere .... but it is true that historically speaking .... wars have been fought in this part of the world for far less.

China Puts Forces On Alert After Japan Scrambles Jets Over E. China Sea

Handout photograph taken on a marine surveillance plane B-3837 shows the disputed islets, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, December 13, 2012.

China On Alert After Japan Scrambles Jets Over E. China Sea -- Voice of America

China says it is on alert after Japan dispatched fighter jets over the East China Sea.

Japanese media report Japan sent F15 fighter aircraft after detecting a Chinese marine surveillance plane in disputed airspace near contested islands in the East China Sea.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters Tuesday Beijing will pay close attention to Japan's decision to dispatch fighter jets. She said China's surveillance plane was conducting routine patrols at the time.

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Update: China on alert for Japanese fighter jets over East China Sea: spokeswoman -- Xinhuanet (China)

My Comment: China is slowly escalating tensions with Japan over these islands. Expect a Chinese jet escort for their marine surveillance planes soon.

Chinese Ships Have Entered Japanese Waters Near Disputed Islands And Are Not Leaving

Chinese Ships Enter Japanese Waters Near Disputed Islands -- CNN

Tokyo (CNN) -- Three Chinese ships entered into waters near small islands in the East China Sea that are claimed by both countries on Friday morning and were staying despite a warning from a Japanese Coast Guard ship, the coast guard said.

The move continues a dispute over the islands -- which Japan calls Senkaku and China calls Diaoyu -- that stretches back decades.

Last week, Japan scrambled fighter jets near the small islands in the East China Sea after a Chinese plane was seen there.

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More News On China Sending Three Ships Into Japanese Waters

China ships in disputed waters, first since Japan poll -- AFP
China ramps up islands dispute with Japan -- The Australian/AFP
China challenges Japan, sends three ships to disputed islands -- IBN Live
Chinese ships survey disputed islands -- UPI
China Says Geology Boosts Island Claims -- Voice of America
China Uses Geology to Challenge Japan on Disputed Islands -- Bloomberg Businessweek
The Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands: Narrative of an empty space -- The Economist

Tensions Escalate Between China And Japan Over Disputed Islands

Japan Scrambles F-15s After China Flies Over Disputed Islands -- Christian Science Monitor

The Chinese plane had already left the islands – known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan – by the time the Japanese F-15s arrived.

The territorial standoff between China and Japan over disputed islands in the East China Sea further escalated today after a Chinese plane was spotted in what Tokyo considers its airspace.

Though the Chinese plane was not a military aircraft, its presence is the latest provocation in a dispute that has affected economic relations between the two countries and comes just three days before Japanese elections.

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More News On The Rise Of Tensions Between China And Japan Over Disputed Islands

Japan accuses China of airspace intrusion over islands -- BBC
Japan Answers Chinese Plane With Fighter Jets -- Wall Street Journal
Japan: China plane spotted over disputed islands -- Bloomberg Businessweek/AP
Japan scrambles jets in dispute with China over islands -- L.A. Times
Japan Scrambles Jets After Chinese Plane Approaches Contested Islands -- Voice of America
Japan sends out fighter jets after China air breach -- AFP
Japan scrambles fighter jets after Chinese plane seen near disputed islands -- CNN
Japan protests about Chinese airspace 'intrusion' over disputed islands -- The Guardian
Japan scrambles F-15s after Chinese government plane flies near disputed East China Islands -- Daily Mail
Japan sends jets in airspace feud with China -- Indian Express
Japan scrambles jets to intercept Chinese plane over Diaoyu Islands -- South China Morning Post

U.S. Report: Military Danger in China-Japan Dispute

Source: Interfax. Note: Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Clinton Warned of Military Danger in China-Japan Dispute -- Bloomberg Businessweek

The festering dispute between China and Japan over five uninhabited islands could spin out of control unless the countries improve their communication with each other, according to a confidential report submitted to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this week by a delegation of former U.S. officials.

The bipartisan four-person delegation met last week with Japan’s prime minister and China’s vice premier, who is expected to take over as prime minister, and both countries’ foreign ministers. The U.S. group warns Clinton in its written report that, while neither side wants a confrontation, a mistake or miscalculation could escalate into a military face-off.

Members of the delegation described their findings on the condition of anonymity because their meetings and report are confidential.

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More News On U.S. Concerns Over The Chinese - Japanese Island Dispute

US Delegation Warns Hillary Clinton The China-Japan Island Spat Could Turn Into A Real War -- Business Insider
Chinese ships enter Japan’s territorial waters again -- The Hindu
US urges calm in China, Japan dispute -- AP
China-Japan: War by other means? -- Tim Collard, China.org.cn
Why the Japan-China Senkaku dispute is the most explosive issue in Asia -- Daniel Blumenthal, Shadow Government/Foreign Policy

Chinese Naval Ships Enter Disputed Islands Provoking A Japanese Protest

A Chinese marine surveillance ship cruises in waters about 28 km (17 miles) northwest of one of the disputed islands called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, in the East China Sea, in this handout photo released by Japan Coast Guard's 11th Regional Co.

Chinese Ships Enter Disputed Senkaku Waters -- The Telegraph

Chinese ships entered waters near a group of disputed islands for the first time in three weeks on Thursday, prompting a strong protest from Japan, which says China's air force has also sharply increased its operations in the area.

Japan's Coast Guard said the four Chinese surveillance ships were spotted within a 12-nautical mile zone that Tokyo considers its territorial waters near one of the disputed islands in the East China Sea early Thursday morning.

The ships refused to leave, saying the area was Chinese territory, according to Atsushi Takahashi, a spokesman for the Coast Guard's headquarters in Okinawa, which has jurisdiction over the islands. He said it was the first time Chinese ships had entered the territorial waters since Oct. 3.

Japan's Foreign Ministry lodged a strong protest with China's ambassador in Tokyo.

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More News On Chinese Naval Ships Entering Disputed Territories

Japan Spots Chinese Ships Near Contested Islands -- Voice of America
Japan sees new Chinese actions near disputed isles -- Bloomberg Businessweek/AP
Japan Protests After Chinese Vessels Enter Disputed Waters -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Japan says Chinese ships in disputed waters -- AFP
China fleet continue patrolling Diaoyu Islands waters -- Xinhuanet
China confirms surveillance ships patrolling near Diaoyu Islands -- Xinhuanet
US must clearly back Japan in islands dispute with China -- Grant Newsham, Christian Science Monitor

My Comment: At least both sides are talking.

Island Disputes In Asia Threaten The Global Economy

Japan, China, South Korea Island Disputes Threaten Global Economy (+ Video) -- Daniel McDowell, Christian Science Monitor

Island disputes between Japan, China, and South Korea are threatening financial stability in East Asia, and with it, the global economy. The next US administration should push publicly and persistently for a solution.

What are the biggest short-term threats to the global economy? The two most obvious answers are the ongoing European debt crisis and the looming austerity of the “fiscal cliff” in the United States. But what if I told you that in the running for honorable mention is the sticky situation in East Asia surrounding territorial disputes over several small islands?

At the heart of these disputes lie the region’s “big three” economies: China, Japan, and South Korea. Beijing and Tokyo are at odds over who has rights to the Senkaku Islands (or in China, the Diaoyu) and, more important, the potential oil deposits in the surrounding waters. Meanwhile, Japan has a similar dispute with South Korea over the Takeshima Islands (or in South Korea, the Dokdo), also with energy deposits.

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My Comment: When the world's #2, #3, and #15 economies are in a major dispute that threatens to escalate .... we should all take notice. And while I doubt that this will escalate into a military confrontation, I do see the possibility that economic measures/sanctions will be taken that will hurt the economies in these three nations. And if history is any indication, when economic sanctions/duties/embargoes/etc. are implemented, it will only be a matter of time before we start to feel it on the other side of the world.

U.S. And Japan Call-Off Naval Exercises Over Fears Of China's Reaction

Japan, US Call Off Naval Drill For Fear Of China’s Reaction -- RIA Novosti

Japan has decided to cancel its planned joint naval drill with the United States fearing that it would provoke a negative reaction from China, the Japan Times daily reported citing an unnamed source in the government.

According to the scenario of the drills, slated for November, the forces of Japan and the United States were to “recapture” an uninhabited Irisuna Island, a remote island in Okinawa Prefecture.

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Update #1: US and Japan scrap naval drill in bid to ease islands tension with China -- South China Post
Update #2: Japan, U.S. abandon drill to 'retake' isle -- Japan Times

My Comment: The Japanese have blinked first, and by making this decision they are hoping for a quid pro quo from China. What`s my read .... the Chinese are not going to accommodate Japan`s wishes.

War Not Likely Between Japan And China Over Disputed Islands

War Between Japan, China Over Isles Called Unlikely -- Washington Times

A senior adviser to the Taiwanese government on Wednesday downplayed the likelihood that a war will erupt in the festering dispute between Taiwan, China and Japan over a chain of tiny islands in the East China Sea.

“Nobody’s going to war over this few rocks, over these tracts of barren land,” said Stephen S.F. Chen, a former top Taiwanese diplomat in Washington, to editors and reporters at The Washington Times.

China and Taiwan agree that the islands are Chinese, though they differ on exactly what that means, said Mr. Chen, who is a senior adviser to Taiwan’s Beijing-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou.

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My Comment: The Chinese will not invade and occupy these islands .... it would raise tensions throughout the region, as well as immediately involving the U.S. and other allies. The economic loses to China will also be severe, especially if sanctions are implemented. My prediction .... the Chinese are going to wage an economic and political battle against Japan .... as well as using Japan as a rallying point within China itself.

Is China Threatening Economic Warfare Against Japan?

China Banks Pull Out Of Meetings in Japan -- Wall Street Journal

TOKYO—Japan's territorial dispute with China appears to be spilling onto the stage of global finance meetings.

Several big Chinese banks say they've canceled participation in the high-profile annual meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to be held in Tokyo next week as well as in the constellation of events taking place alongside. Some of the banks say they've also pulled out of another big financial-industry conference scheduled to take place in the western Japanese city of Osaka at the end of the month.

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More News On The Growing Dispute Between China And Japan

China banks pull out of IMF Tokyo meet amid island row: WSJ -- Reuters
China banks snubbing IMF, World Bank events -- Japan Times/AFP
Japan hopes China friction won't hurt finance ties -- Bloomberg Businessweek/AP
Protests slow but won't halt Japan investments in China -- Business Times
China-Japan spat threatens to disrupt billions in trade -- Globe and Mail
World economy can't afford China-Japan dispute, says Lagarde -- South China Morning Post

My Comment: China has already hinted (a few weeks ago) that they if their territorial dispute with Japan continues .... be prepared for a "bond attack".

Who Will Win This "Rock Fight"

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Rock Fight -- James Holmes, Foreign Policy

Japan could win a war for the Senkaku islands, but it wouldn't be easy. And certainly not without U.S. help.

In recent weeks, Japan and China have squared off over who owns a minor group of islands in the East China Sea. The unthinkable -- a perilous maritime war for seemingly trivial stakes -- no longer appears unthinkable. So how do you defend a group of uninhabited rocks and islets like the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands?

Mainly by positioning yourself to win the air and sea battle around the disputed archipelago. The obvious way to ward off attack -- stationing garrisons and artillery on the tiny, resource-poor islands -- should be a secondary measure. And it would likely prove a losing one, absent superiority in nearby seas and skies. Forces left ashore without external support would find themselves stranded and outgunned, not to mention hungry and thirsty.

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My Comment: China will probably win a military confrontation (if the U.S. does not get involved), but the repercussions would be a disaster for not only China's economy, but for it's soon to be new leadership who are trying their best to signal to the rest of the world that China has "come of age" in international relations.

China And Japan Spar Over Disputed islands At The U.N.

China Minister Tells UN Japan 'Stole' Disputed Islands -- Voice of America

China's foreign minister says Japan's recent purchase of disputed islands in the East China Sea is "illegal and invalid" and that the move does not affect Beijing's historical claim to the rocky archipelago.

In a speech late Thursday to the United Nations General Assembly, Yang Jiechi said the Japanese purchase "grossly violated" Chinese sovereignty. Yang said it cannot change the "historical fact that Japan stole" the islands from China.

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More News On The Chinese - Japanese Dispute Over Islands

China and Japan spar over islands at UN assembly -- Hindustan Times/AFP
China takes aim at Japan over island dispute at UN -- CBS/AP
China's U.N. ambassador rebuts remarks by Japanese representative on Diaoyu Islands -- Xinhuanet
China Alters Its Strategy in Diplomatic Crisis With Japan -- New York Times
China official says spat with Japan derails free trade talks -- Reuters
Japan's Noda Addresses Island Spats at UN -- Wall Street Journal
Japanese prime minister: No compromise on territorial dispute with China over islands -- Washington Post/AP
Japan: No Compromise on Island Dispute -- Voice of America
US says it will not mediate in islands dispute, urges China-Japan diplomacy to calm tensions -- Washington Post/AP
China-Japan spat may ignite, expert warns -- Sydney Morning Herald
Everything You’ve Always Wanted to Know About Those Islands But Were Afraid to Ask -- Wall Street Journal

Chinese Official: Risk Of A Military Conflict Between China And Japan

Yan Xuetong who has warned that unless one side backs down, there could be a repeat of the Falklands Conflict in Asia

Military Conflict 'Looms' Between China And Japan -- The Telegraph

War between China and Japan looms, with neither power willing to back down over a disputed chain of islands, expert warns.

The spat over the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands has escalated dramatically in the past month with violent protests across China.

But with a national election approaching in Japan, and a change of leadership in China, politicians on both sides have refused to step back from the brink, afraid that they will appear weak.

"There is a danger of China and Japan having a military conflict," said Yan Xuetong, one of China's most influential foreign policy strategists, and a noted hawk.

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My Comment: From an outsider point of view this type of talk is ridiculous .... risking a war over what is essentially a few barren and uninhabitable islands ... but everyone in China and Japan are glued to this conflict and there is no sign of anyone backing down.

How Tensions Between China And Japan Are Causing Changes In Military Policy

Senkaku Dispute Reinforces Military Shifts -- Washington Post

TOKYO — Tuesday’s confrontation between Japanese and Taiwanese coast guard vessels hardly ranks among the great naval battles — the only weapons deployed were water cannon, and the Taiwanese beat a dignified retreat after a few hours.

But the televised maritime contest certainly highlighted the rising passions surrounding the Senkaku islands, a tiny Japanese-controlled archipelago that is also claimed by Taiwan and, more dangerously, by its giant neighbor, China.

Worrying cracks have appeared along a diplomatic fault line that lay mostly quiet for decades, sparking heated talk among international commentators of a possible Sino-Japanese war.

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Update: Japan v. China: Smoke or Fire? -- Conn Hallinan, FPIF

My Comment:  At the moment both parties are arguing over what is essentially a few square kilometers of rock. But if significant oil and gas deposits are found in the contested territories .... expect tensions and "military shifts" to escalate.

Update #2:  Japan says no compromise in islands row -- The Australian

China And Japan Are Playing Chicken

A Chinese surveillance ship (front) gets close to a Japanese coast guard vessel. Reuters

Playing Chicken In The East China Sea -- Mchael Auslin, Wall Street Journal

Nationalist passions in both China and Japan increase the risk of confrontation.

Over the past two weeks, one of the largest naval standoffs in recent years played out between China and Japan. Off the disputed Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu in China), up to 20 Chinese maritime surveillance vessels were shadowed by 50 Japanese Coast Guard cutters, as the Japanese waited tensely for a reported 1,000-ship fishing flotilla to arrive from China. Although the private armada never materialized, this is the latest in a string of face-offs that increase the likelihood that confrontation will erupt, due as much to chance as to calculation.

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My comment: I concur with this Reuters assessment that war will not be the result from this confrontation .... but it is also true that the bitterness of the Second World War still exists in Asia .... and no one is willing to forget, atone, or forgive for what happened 70 years ago.

Tensions Remain High Between China And Japan Over Disputed Islands

Tensions Increase As Japan And China Continue Islets Stand-Off -- Irish Times

OFFICIALS FROM Asia’s two most powerful economies are struggling to put out the latest diplomatic fires from their stand-off over a chain of disputed islets.

Tokyo is sending its vice foreign minister to Beijing in a bid to dial down tensions, ratcheted up further yesterday when Chinese ships again entered waters near the islets, known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan.

The reported incursion by two Chinese surveillance ships and a fishing patrol boat sparked another official protest from Tokyo and an angry response from Japan’s top government spokesman Osamu Fujimura, who promised to “raise objections at the highest level.”

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More News On The Rising Tensions Between China And Japan Over Disputed Islands

Chinese ships raise tension on disputed islands -- The Independent
Chinese Boats Enter Disputed Waters as Japan Dispute Simmers -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Japan protests as Chinese ships enter disputed waters -- Reuters
Japan envoy heads to China as ships sail near islands -- BBC
Top diplomat dispatched to China -- Japan Times
Japan's Deputy Foreign Minister Visits Beijing -- Voice of America
As China and Japan set meeting to ease island dispute, Taiwan steps into fray -- Christian Science Monitor
Japanese firms say China protests affect business plans -- Reuters
Islands dispute threatens global economy -- The Australian
Dangerous waters: Behind the islands dispute -- Kevin Voigt, CNN